OK now that I have vented my frustrations I will turn to actual trading. With the piss poor jobs report today the dollar is finishing the weak with a bearish tone. USD/JPY which already lost a penny and a half since yesterday is ready fall below 100 again. It is a very pretty looking short on a daily chart and I am suggesting you short it ASAP. Of course if you use a crappy broker like FXCM which does not permit you to trade after 4 pm EST you will have to wait until Sunday. However when Sunday rolls around do not hesitate to short the pair.

I hope many of you were able to take a nice profit on my short USD/CAD recommendation today. It came down and hit the one support level I failed to mention yesterday at 1.0130. The bad news is I forget to  list every support level, the good news is there will soon be a whole technical analysis page or pages created on the site which will list all the support levels for you.  GBP/USD ran into a wall today when it hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the move from $1.93 to $2.04. at $1.9898 and looks like it wants to head back down to the Fibonacci at $1.9782 sometime tomorrow morning but I must warn you that if you try to jump in now and ride it down it is wise to get out BEFORE the big ISM report tomorrow.

Although the yen did strengthen right after I suggested to buy it against the dollar yesterday by about 50 points it clearly broke 100 yen to the dollar later on. The stock market rally is really helping the dollar against the yen because of the strong correlation there. The dollar is looking good here but I suspect that Bernake will talk it down tomorrow morning and it will lose value during the am hours of the New York session. I think USD/CAD looks like a good short here, this pair has once again lead the market in terms of dollar direction and I think tomorrow it will lead the dollar in a downward move. It really sold hard at 1.03 indicating a lot of orders placed at the figure. 1.0192 seems to be the likely target since it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on teh big move from 1.18 down to the low 90s. IF this is breached look at 1.0175 as the next support level followed by 1.01.

Sell USD/JPY now while it is still near 100 and look for a one penny move in it.

My recommendation is to buy the Yen. Sunday night should provide a good opportunity to do so with industrial production coming out and the PMI as well. I like the yen in general and I think looking at short term charts that USD/JPY is bound for 98.57 on Sunday and then lower next month.

The Pound did indeed find some support yesterday night at at around $1.9780 and I hope you were able to make some pips on that trade before GBP/USD tested the downside prior to the strong UK retail sales which it back to its rate prior to the news of $1.9839.  I just went long NZD/USD at .79 it looks good here for about 50 pips.

I hope you all listened and bought the dollar after the 75 basis point cut (as crazy as that sounds) and have already or are about to book a profit on it. From a technical perspective GBP/USD is a buy right now with support coming in the way of the 61.8$ Fibonacci at 1.9782. I strongly suggest you dump this trade BEFORE the retail sales in the morning however. If you are already in a profit at that point I guess you could put in a stop to secure profits and hope for a good number. If your broker is not real good about honoring stops in fast markets though you should just get out and probably find one that is while your at it. I can refer you to a broker who will honor your stops if you need me too.

Since Friday’s Bear Sterns debacle traders have decided to price in a full 1% point rate cut in at today’s meeting. So anything less than that should give the dollar a boost against it’s contemporaries. No matter what happens I expect to see the stock market sell off after it already rallied in anticipation of a huge cut and met Fibonacci resistance at 12,270. If the cut is a full 1% I expect to see the dollar give back some of the ground it has gained since Sunday and you should sell it.

The Japanese yen is finally started to work towards a “real exchange rate” a floating rate that is not being manipulated by intervention. This is long overdue and will help to correct imbalances which hurt the U.S.A. and also Japan. With this in mind the yen is still a buy now that it has cleanly broke 100 and kept on trucking. This thing could easily make a run for 80 yen to the dollar in the next month or two.

I still like the yen and would not be surprised to see USD/JPY end the day below 100. I don’t see any harm in riding it down there until around the time the market closes. There is a good chance that if it closes below 100 it will keep falling when the market reopens on Sunday. I still think it is prudent to exit before 5 pm EST however since most of us can’t trade again until 5 pm on Sunday and the market actually opens at 2 pm.