1 April 2008 - 23:20daily commentary 4/1/08

The downward movement I was expecting was confirmed today on EUR/USD and USD/CHF followed suit. The double top looks like it will hold and the euro will back off here. That is of course unless the Fed does something dumb like they did last time the dollar tried to rally and kill the recovery. The yen did gain last night but gave it all back and then some as the dollar strengthened across the board. So I guess the April fools were the ones who were still short dollar on the first. Gold made a clear break of $900 and GBP/USD is once again finding resistance at $1.8782 after a sharp correction. Even if we see a weak jobs report this week I am starting to think it would set up a triple top in EUR/USD. Of course Bernake is speaking tomorrow morning and when he moves his lips the dollar tends to fall so be prepared to see the dollar give back some of it’s gains tomorrow morning.